Servette FC vs Lyon

Lyon at -10000 are priced as a virtual certainty to win, and yet BetMGM's Over 4.5 is -145 — suggesting the market strongly anticipates a 5+ goal Lyon victory. However, even historically dominant sides in European competition rarely post cricket scores in every group-stage match. Lyon winning 3-0 or 4-0 is easily the most common realistic outcome against a Swiss domestic opponent, and both of those fall Under 4.5. The Under +105 offers positive expected value: you are essentially getting paid to bet on a result (Lyon winning convincingly but not historically) that should be the modal outcome. Plus-money on a result that aligns with the majority of probable scorelines (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0) represents real edge against an Over-leaning line driven by moneyline narrative.